Are the Cleveland Indians going to compete in 2010? That question may essentially be determined by Friday's midnight trade deadline. If the Indians pull off a deal sending away C/1B Victor Martinez and/or SP Cliff Lee for prospects, the Tribe's chances at contending in the AL Central are diminished significantly.

Trade rumors are flying around feverishly about teams interested in Lee and Martinez (some, like the Dodgers, may be interested in both). Rumors have included the Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies, and Rays to name just a few. The Tribe is certainly not willing to part with either of them without receiving blue chip prospects, yes I said PROSPECTS, in return. Names such as Red Sox pitcher Clay Bucholz, Dodgers first baseman James Loney, Dodgers' starters Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw, and Rays pitcher Wade Davis have been thrown around.

The main reason I am not thrilled about the proposition of trading these two is that it does eliminate the chance of the Indians being relevant next season. Also, these two can be traded at next season's deadline for solid prospects, although they will command more now. The sad thing is it's a vicious cycle when you're a small or mid-market team in Major League Baseball. You trade your stars for prospects, they reach the majors and you get 2 or 3 years with them. Then, you can't afford them so they either walk in free agency or you trade them for more prospects. Everything has to be aligned in order for you to compete. That is, you need several prospects that peak at the right time for a few seasons along with a nice mix of veterans to reach the postseason.

Just look at the '07 Indians. They couldn't sustain the run, but look at all the players who had a career year that season. They include Fausto Carmona, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt, Jensen Lewis, Ryan Garko, Franklin Gutierrez, Jhonny Peralta, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Joe Borowski to name a few. Some, like Cabrera and Garko have had a better season since, but for many the stars were just aligned right that season.

My next argument is that a trade like that would be ripping apart the team's core. No doubt that is what you are doing by trading these two, especially Martinez. Garko and Betancourt were two players I really liked, but they were role players. Cliff is your defending Cy-Young and All-Star pitcher, and Victor is a 3-time All-Star and the heart and soul of this team. Victor is the emotional leader and a fan favorite along with Sizemore. He's a Tribe draft pick, and it would be just as sad to see him go as it was when Tribe draftee C.C. Sabathia departed via trade last season.

Finally, if the Indians want to draw ANYONE to Progressive Field next season, they are going to have a hard time doing so after trading two of their three best players. Attendance will plummet, they'll get 10,000 people if they're lucky on weeknights, and the team will suffer an even greater loss financially.

It's not a fun decision to have to make, especially when you're Mark Shapiro and likely on the hot seat. There's no doubt, however, that any way you cut the cards, the deck's stacked against you as a team in the Cleveland baseball market.

Kirk

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