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 Photo: Cleveland.com
After a physical today, Russell Branyan is set to join the Tribe in Goodyear, Arizona this week for his 4th stint with the organization. The 34 year old first baseman has reached a one year agreement with the Indians worth up to $3 million ($2 million base + incentives) with a mutual team/player option for 2011 worth $5 million. Branyan will bring some much needed power to a tribe lineup that in the bottom half of the league in homeruns (10th) and overall slugging (8th).
There are a few reasons why Branyan fits in nicely with the Indians: First off, there are glaring uncertainties with the power hitters in Cleveland’s lineup. Grady Sizemore is coming of an injury plagued season where he hit 18 homers while OPSing .788 in 503 plate appearances (all three career lows). Another Tribe slugger, Travis Hafner, hasn’t been the old Pronk since he signed a contract extension during the 2007 season. Secondly, Branyan offers insurance for Hafner and first baseman of the future Matt LaPorta who is coming of hip and toe surgery this winter. Branyan can also act as a buffer for someone such as Michael Brantley who may benefit from a little more time down in Columbus. Finally, Branyan is coming off of his best season as a major leaguer and he brings power to the first base position that has not been seen in Cleveland since Jim Thome left in following the 2002 season. The Tribe offense suffered through injuries to both Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner in 2009. Hafner entered the 2009 season as a question mark coming off of shoulder surgery that shortened his 2008 season. His ’09 numbers were more in line with his career numbers than in ’08, but he was still limited to only 94 games and 383 plate appearances while hitting 16 HR’s and OPSing .836. Sizemore was shut down in early September to have two surgeries and played through pain for most of the season; which no doubt contributed to the lowest offensive output of his career. Cleveland looks for both of these guys to come back healthy in 2010 and contribute, but it is unlikely that Hafner will return to the player who hit 42 homeruns and OPS’d and amazing 1.097 in 2006. In fact, Bill James predicts Hafner to replicate 2009: 16 HR’s, .880 OPS. The outlook on Sizemore is more favorable. But even if Grady lives up to projections (25 HR’s), the Tribe could still use a legitimate power hitter to shore up the middle of a lineup in which Shin-Soo Choo lead with only 20 homeruns. Enter Russell Branyan, whose 31 homeruns in 2009 were a career high and were good for 11th in the American League.
Russell Branyan also offers insurance for the Tribe in a few areas. First off, with Travis Hafner. Hafner did not perform well on back to back days in 2009 and was still limited with shoulder soreness/fatigue at the end of the campaign. After lighting it up in June with a Pronk-esq 1.082 OPS, Hafner cooled off to post a .798 OPS in July and a horrendous .674 in August. Cleveland would be wise to spell Hafner on a regular basis to maximize his output. In fact, James projects Hafner to have only 358 plate appearances in ’10 while appearing in 98 games; little over half of the season. Branyan offers an option to fill in for Travis at DH without sacrificing power. They are both left handed hitters, but Hafner has a reasonable career split (.836 OPS) versus LHP (Branyan .873 OPS vs. RHP). Plus, the AL central only has four left-handed starters worth noting (Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Nate Robertson and Francisco Liriano) out of the 20-22 probable lefty’s in the American League.
In addition to Hafner, Cleveland’s first baseman of the future, Matt LaPorta, is recovering from off season surgery on his hip and toe. Prior to signing Branyan, the Tribe had two options to use if LaPorta is slow in returning: Andy Marte on the 25 man roster and Jordan Brown who finished 2009 in Columbus without a courtesy call up in September; neither of them are a viable options to man first base full time. When LaPorta is ready to go, Branyan can offer a platoon partner or simply play first base full time until the Tribe feels comfortable with LaPorta.
2010 still remains uncertain for LaPorta who may see time in left field to start the season. LaPorta made the switch from left field to first base last season as that is where the Indians eventually see him in the future; however, he has played less than 60 games at first base as a professional. The front runner to fill left field is Michael Brantley; but Brantley doesn’t turn 23 until May and has only one full season of AAA under his belt. That being said, it is possible that the Indians front office will start him off in Columbus; making LaPorta the everyday left fielder and giving Branyan the bulk of the playing time at first. Branyan is historically a better first half player with 95 homeruns, and .858 SLG in 1525 first half plate appearances as opposed to 69 homers and a .780 OPS in 1300 second half plate appearances. This makes him a great option for the beginning of the year with trade potential midseason once Hafner, LaPorta and Brantley are settled in with the big league club.
Finally, Russell Branyan is coming off of his best season as a major leaguer; posting career highs in homeruns (31), RBI’s (76) and walks (58), while posting his second highest on-base percentage(.347) and OPS (.867) and reducing his K-rate from a career average of 33% to 30% (around 15k’s over 500 PA’s). It is an opportune time to take a chance on a guy who could provide immediate help to a middle of the road offense and potentially net the Indians another prospect via trade if all goes well.
There are also a few negatives with Branyan worth mentioning: 30-33% is an awfully high K-rate. He is coming off of a season where he did play through a sore back, which diminished his second half numbers significantly. Finally, his 505 plate appearances are a career high, but the last time he posted at least 200 plate appearances was 2006 and he has only eclipsed 300 plate appearances three times in his career. This makes him a legitimate concern to stick as a full time player.
All and all, it was a worthwhile gamble for a familiar face. If he comes close to his 2009 first half (22 HR’s, .956 OPS in 341 PA’s) the front office will be ecstatic. And at $2 million I’ll take that bet.
GRADE: B-.
It would be a B/B+, but I’m concerned about the back and the minimal career PAs for a 34 year old.
POTENTIAL IMPACT: B+/A-.
If Branyan comes in and puts up the same first half numbers as last year, it’s like Pronk 2006 all over again. He would provide an enormous boost to an offense that needs to put runs on the board.
Notes: Russell Branyan has been in the Indians organization four times. He was drafted by the Indians in the 7th round of the 1994 amateur draft, traded to Cleveland by the Atlanta Braves in 2004, signed a Minor League deal in 2007 and signed a Major League deal in 2010. Branyan was drafted as a third baseman, but has not played that position since 2008. He also spent time in the outfield, but has not appeared there since 2007.
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A great debut article. We're looking forward to hearing more from you about the Tribe in the coming weeks and months.
Branyan is the ultimate low-risk, high-reward guy with the price they signed him at. I'll take the strikeout every third time up if it means he knocks 25-30 out of the park, isn't a total butcher at first, and he can hit north of .240 (all far from givens).
My personal belief is that Russell "The Muscle" hits 15 homers in the first half of the season, and he gets dealt mid-season along with Kerry Wood and anything else that is not nailed down on the Tribe roster for more prospects.
Sunrise, sunset.
Kirk