By far the Indian’s biggest question mark entering the 2010 season is with their starting rotation.  Jake Westbrook anchors a rotation which has minimal experience and Westbrook himself hasn’t pitched since 2008.  The second man in the rotation, Fausto Carmona, wound up in rookie league for part of last season because he couldn’t stop psyching himself out.  The other three members have a combined 346 innings pitched at the major league level.  To put that into perspective, CC Sabathia threw 230 innings in 2009 and 253 innings in 2008; needless to say, these guys are lacking in experience.  So basically, the Indians, who started the past two seasons with a Cy Young winner anchoring their staff, will now rely on the reemergence of both Jake Westbrook and Fausto Carmona to lead their rotation.

Had you told me in October of 2007 that Fausto Carmona would go on to win only 15 games over the ’08 and ’09 seasons, I would have probably thought you were nuts.  Carmona was getting a lot of attention (and Cy Young votes) after an outstanding ’07 season where he won 19 games with a 3.06 earned run average.  What Carmona had in ’07 that he was lacking the past two seasons is control.  In 2007 Carmona only allowed 2.55 walks per 9 innings while striking out 5.73/9.  Over the past two seasons, Carmona has more than doubled his BB/9 posting 5.22 in ’08 and 5.08 in ’09.  There are a few theories as to why this is so, but I won’t elaborate on those now (though I have my ideas).  Suffice it to say that in order for the Indians to be competitive, Carmona had better keep the ball in the strike zone.  It would be a luxury (and to me a complete surprise) if Carmona reverts back to his ’07 numbers; possible, but extremely unlikely.  However, if he can keep from giving free passes and keep the ball on the ground, he could be a pretty good pitcher.  He’s not a staff ace and really isn’t designed to be a prototypical #1, but he’s got #2 or #3 stuff and this spring, Carmona put up some good numbers; 26 innings pitched, K:BB of 6 and a 1.38 ERA.  It’s sometimes easy to get down on Carmona, but keep in mind; he is only 26 and is just now entering his prime.  I think that a lot of people have been a little tough on him.  We have to remember that in ’07 his stuff was new to the AL hitters and pitching coaches.  By the end of ’07, some of his tricks were revealed (the fact that his pitches have so much movement, that being patient almost assures a hitter that Carmona won’t hit the zone) and coaches were exploiting this weakness.  For Carmona to resume his dominance he must develop a pitch that he can throw for strikes; his 2 seamer is just too erratic.  I look for him to rebound in 2010 to a #2 starter level.

Jake Westbrook, the longest tenured Cleveland Indian, looks to make his comeback from Tommy John surgery which kept him out of more than half of 2008 and all of the 2009 season.  The Tribe anticipated his comeback last year around the all star break, but Westbrook experienced a few setbacks and was ultimately shut down until resuming during fall ball.  Westbrook is owed $11 million this year and he is going to have to earn it for the Indians to be competitive.  The Tribe will look for him to guide some of their young pitchers and eat up innings to keep the pen rested.  Westbrook is not a staff ace either; but he has put up some pretty good seasons in a Tribe uniform.  His injury could not have come at a worse time as he was off to a great start in 2008.  After pitching 18 spring training innings without allowing a run, Westbrook started the 2008 campaign 1 – 2 with a 3.12 ERA and posting nearly 5 K/9 and a 2.75 K:BB before getting injured.  Spring Training hasn’t been kind to Jake this season, but as he said in an interview on STO he’s “gotta learn to pitch again”.  I look for him to regain his command as the year progresses.  On the bright side, Westbrook was never a power pitcher so it’s not like he needs to learn a completely new way of pitching.  That being said, it’s still not an easy recovery, so we need to be patient with Jake.  Projections for Westbrook this year are pretty conservative, but they pretty much all align to a 4 – 4, 4.40 ERA and right around 5 K/9 with a 1.5 K:BB; but only pitching around 65 innings.  I’ll take all of those numbers but the IP.  We will need him to eat innings to keep our team in contention.  We need him to learn how to pitch again.

Then there are the other three: David Huff, Justin Masterson and Mitch Talbot.  Out of these three, Masterson is the one that really intrigues me.  Acquired in the deal that sent Victor Martinez to Boston; Masterson spent the back end of ’09 converting from relief pitcher to starter.  He was outstanding in his final start of the season, throwing a complete game - 9 IP, 12 K’s and 2 BB’s while giving up only one earned run.  So far this spring Masterson has struck out 29 while walking only 6 in 21 innings pitched. Masterson’s ’09 numbers were average.  He posted a 4.52 earned run average going a combined 4 and 10 with Boston and Cleveland.  But I think the silver lining in his numbers is his career K/9 of 7.75.  Masterson just turned 25 and has some pretty good stuff.  The key for him will be to get lefties out.  His career OPS against is .843 versus lefties as opposed to a .584 versus righties.  His K:BB ratio of 2.84 against righties is more than double his career versus lefties.  The AL Central has a few decent left-handed hitters (Mauer, Morneau), so it will be imperative for Masterson to get lefties out.  I look for him to develop into a #4 type starter this year with upside.

David Huff is the lone lefty in the Tribe rotation (for now).  Huff is a homegrown product, drafted in the first round of the 2006 amateur draft.  He made his debut last season and actually lead the team in wins with 11.  I’m not particularly high on Huff, but he has his moments.  He’s not a hard thrower, but has shown a tendency to strike batters out.  Following a call up to AAA in 2008, Huff proceeded to strike out 81 batters in 81 innings pitched going 6 and 4 with a 3.01 ERA.  This got many Tribe fans excited about Huff only to be disappointed by his 2009 performance.  I personally think that the jury is still out on Huff.  He simply doesn’t have enough experience either way to make a truly educated guess.  My thought is that he’s better than the pitcher who posted a 5.61 ERA in 2009, but how much better?  Projections have him going about 8 – 9 with a 4.9 earned run average.  I’m thinking that this is probably a pretty accurate reading on how Huff will do.  If he can perform like the 5 K:BB pitcher he was in 2008, he could really help the Tribe this year.  But I don’t see him posting numbers like those against major league hitters.  He’s probably a marginal #5 right now.

Finally, Mitch Talbot rounds out the Cleveland rotation, making his first big league club out of camp.  Talbot is by far the least known commodity coming out of camp.  Having posted a total of 9.2 innings pitched at the major league level, he is also the least experienced.  Talbot was acquired for Kelly Shoppach this past offseason and spent the majority of last season in AAA, where he went 4 – 4 with a 4.47 ERA in 10 starts.  Projections that I have seen for Talbot have him winning around 5 games with a 5.25 ERA over the span of roughly 100 innings.  It really is hard to tell how he will do.  He pitched well in the spring posting a 3.71 earned run average and striking out 10 in 17 innings pitched.  Personally, I would have liked to have seen Aaron Laffey in the rotation with Talbot in the long reliever role.  At 26 years of age, Talbot is also our second oldest starter behind Westbrook.  I look for Talbot to fall in with the likes of Jeremy Sowers; a guy who posted decent AAA numbers, but who just can’t seem to get to the next level and would be surprised to see him last past May.

Overall the Tribe rotation is suspect at best.  Cleveland is looking for a few guys to hold down the fort until some of our prospects are ready to man the rubber.  It’s going to take a lot to go right for this group to be good, but if they can be around average, they may keep us in ball games (provided our offense lives up to expectations).   Justin Masterson is my guy to watch here.  I look for him to solidify his spot as #2 or #3 going into 2011.

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