Photo: Marvin Fong/The Plain Dealer

Mark Shapiro and his staff have had a hectic week to be certain. Not only have they been sending people on and off the DL and back and forth from the minors at record pace, but they have now completed four separate trades involving four key players in less than 72 hours. Gone are third baseman Jhonny Peralta, outfielder Austin Kearns, starter Jake Westbrook, and closer Kerry Wood, and in comes a couple of shots in the dark along with financial relief, but that's the business of baseball... at least for the Cleveland Indians and about 20 other teams in Major League Baseball.

It's truly mind boggling to think that just nine guys are left from the 2007 season. They are Fausto Carmona, Aaron Laffey, Rafael Perez, Jensen Lewis, Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, Asdrubal Cabrera, Andy Marte, and Shin-Soo Choo. Furthermore, Choo and Marte were not on the postseason roster, so just 7 of the team's 25 best at season's end are still wearing Tribe uniforms. Of those other 18 players, 12 of them have gone via trade (Blake, Sabathia, Byrd, Betancourt, Gutierrez, Michaels, Shoppach, Garko, Martinez, Peralta, Westbrook, and Francisco). The others (Borowski, Mastny, Gomez, Nixon, Barfield, and Fultz) were released or departed through free agency.

It took a little while; but the Indians team I had dreaded might show up this season, finally made an appearance.  Cleveland did everything short of gift wrapping their first game of the season against the division leading Minnesota Twins.  Through 4 innings pitched, Tribe starter Justin Masterson managed 5 walks and 5 runs (1 earned).  The 3rd inning was particularly brutal for the Tribe and Masterson.  With the score tied 1 to 1, Masterson allowed the first two runners to reach base before recovering to strike out Jason Kubel.  With runners on 1st and 2nd, Masterson induced a ground ball to usually sure handed shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera for a would be inning ending double play.  But Cabrera let the ball go literally through his legs loading the bases.  Masterson then walked home the Twins' 2nd run of the game and followed that up with a wild pitch that scored not one, but two runs for the Twins.  When the dust settled, the Twins scored 4 runs; all of them unearned.

In what I'm going to try and make a weekly or twice weekly occurrence, "Broken Bat Singles" will take a look at some trends from recent Tribe games and deliver my observations.

• The Tribe won their fourth straight on Sunday by getting out the brooms and sweeping the Chicago White Sox with a 7-4 effort. The win was led by Fausto Carmona's third straight solid outing to start the season and the continued smashing that Shin-Soo Choo has been doing. It was also Cleveland's fifth win against the ChiSox in six games, accounting for all but one Tribe victory on the season.

• Carmona isn't all the way back to the 19-game winner from 2007 that could not be hit, but he's taking steps in the right direction. His walks have diminished from six to four to two in his three starts this season, and he's only given up 12 hits in those 3 starts (20 innings), two of those resulting in wins. Some of the credit for Fausto's early success should go to his new personal catcher, Mike Redmond, who seems to be doing a nice job of calling a smart game and keeping Carmona calm on the pitching rubber, a feat that is easier said than done.

The Cleveland Indians blew an 8-3 lead going into the bottom of the 7th inning in today's game against the Tigers, which completed Detroit's three game sweep of the Tribe; Detroit won the first two games of the series 5-2 and 4-2.  The Indians' offense (which managed only two runs a game for the first two games of the series) spotted today's starter Jake Westbrook a 5-0 lead in the top of the first, capped off by a Luis Valbuena grand slam.  Cleveland held the lead until a ninth capped off by a bases loaded wild pitch by Tribe closer Chris Perez that gave the Tigers the ball game.  Keep in mind that the wild pitch followed a bases loaded walk to Johnny Damon which tied the game (and was Perez's 3rd walk in 1+ innings pitched).  It was a fitting end for a Tribe staff which allowed an average of 7 walks per game for the series and now leads all of the majors with 40 free passes (almost 7 per game) on the season.  To put it into perspective, only two other teams have 30 or more walks allowed and the current MLB team average for walks allowed is 22.  Basically, Indian pitchers have given first base to 18 more players than the average team through six games or three more walks per game.  Not to mention their 0.8 K:BB ratio is dead last (only Cleveland and Washington have a ratio less than 1) and their pitches/IP is second to last at nearly 18.5.

By far the Indian’s biggest question mark entering the 2010 season is with their starting rotation.  Jake Westbrook anchors a rotation which has minimal experience and Westbrook himself hasn’t pitched since 2008.  The second man in the rotation, Fausto Carmona, wound up in rookie league for part of last season because he couldn’t stop psyching himself out.  The other three members have a combined 346 innings pitched at the major league level.  To put that into perspective, CC Sabathia threw 230 innings in 2009 and 253 innings in 2008; needless to say, these guys are lacking in experience.  So basically, the Indians, who started the past two seasons with a Cy Young winner anchoring their staff, will now rely on the reemergence of both Jake Westbrook and Fausto Carmona to lead their rotation.

Had you told me in October of 2007 that Fausto Carmona would go on to win only 15 games over the ’08 and ’09 seasons, I would have probably thought you were nuts.  Carmona was getting a lot of attention (and Cy Young votes) after an outstanding ’07 season where he won 19 games with a 3.06 earned run average.  What Carmona had in ’07 that he was lacking the past two seasons is control.  In 2007 Carmona only allowed 2.55 walks per 9 innings while striking out 5.73/9.  Over the past two seasons, Carmona has more than doubled his BB/9 posting 5.22 in ’08 and 5.08 in ’09.  There are a few theories as to why this is so, but I won’t elaborate on those now (though I have my ideas).  Suffice it to say that in order for the Indians to be competitive, Carmona had better keep the ball in the strike zone.  It would be a luxury (and to me a complete surprise) if Carmona reverts back to his ’07 numbers; possible, but extremely unlikely.  However, if he can keep from giving free passes and keep the ball on the ground, he could be a pretty good pitcher.  He’s not a staff ace and really isn’t designed to be a prototypical #1, but he’s got #2 or #3 stuff and this spring, Carmona put up some good numbers; 26 innings pitched, K:BB of 6 and a 1.38 ERA.  It’s sometimes easy to get down on Carmona, but keep in mind; he is only 26 and is just now entering his prime.  I think that a lot of people have been a little tough on him.  We have to remember that in ’07 his stuff was new to the AL hitters and pitching coaches.  By the end of ’07, some of his tricks were revealed (the fact that his pitches have so much movement, that being patient almost assures a hitter that Carmona won’t hit the zone) and coaches were exploiting this weakness.  For Carmona to resume his dominance he must develop a pitch that he can throw for strikes; his 2 seamer is just too erratic.  I look for him to rebound in 2010 to a #2 starter level.

It took the Indians 12 1/3 innings for their first run of the 2010 season to cross the plate, but I guess it was worth the wait.  Starting pitcher Fausto Carmona struggled through the first three innings of tonight's game walking four White Sox batters, including the first two of the game.  It appeared that tonight was going to be a long one after the first inning when Sox leadoff man Juan Pierre walked, stole second and third, and then scored on a Paul Konerko sacrifice fly for a 1-0 lead with no hits.  Carmona started the third inning retiring the first two, walking left fielder Carlos Quentin and promptly giving up a two-run homer to, guess who, Paul Konerko.  Sometimes it feels like the Indians have single handedly prolonged the career of Konerko, who seems to rough up Tribe pitching every chance he gets.  Carmona settled in after the 3rd inning with a final line of 6 innings pitched, 3 earned runs and only 2 hits; but had 6 walks and only 1 strike out.  Carmona through a lot of first pitch balls and early in the game worked out of too many 3 - 1 counts for my liking.

2010 Cleveland Indians – The Outfield

By: Chuck

The Indians roster has been fairly turbulent the last few years.  But even with all of the changes, they still have one of the best players in all of baseball; Grady Sizemore.  Sizemore was plagued by injuries last season and posted his worst numbers since his major league debut in 2004.  In 2009, Sizemore only played in 106 games.  If the Indians are going to do anything this season, they are going to need Sizemore to rebound.  2010 projections are pretty consistent on Sizemore; .270, 25HR and .850 OPS.  I would take this from Sizemore and it would be a step in the right direction.  I like the fact that he has been moved down in the lineup this year.  He should benefit significantly batting between Cabrera and Choo; especially if they both put up numbers like they did last year.  Sizemore is going to have to be the driving force for this team on the offensive side, so 2010 is going to be a test for him.  There is no Victor Martinez; Travis Hafner is not the same guy as he was in 2006; Jhonny Peralta is, well, Jhonny Peralta.  Sizemore has to be the man this year and I believe he will. 

Another Indians outfielder who has gained notoriety with baseball analysts everywhere is Shin-Soo Choo.  Choo burst onto the Cleveland scene in 2008, posting a .946 OPS with 14 HRs in 94 games.  Choo did not give Indian’s fans a letdown in 2009, batting an even .300 with 20 HRs and an above average .883 OPS while playing in 156 games.  Choo provides Cleveland with consistent production in right field that has been lacking since the beginning of the ‘00’s when Manny Ramirez and Juan Gonzalez manned the position.  SSC is only 27 years old and is just entering his prime, so I look for him to keep the productivity at an above average level for years to come (barring a call from his native South Korea to serve a “mandatory” two year military stint).

Left field is the real question mark in this outfield.  The Indians brought in Russell Branyan to solidify both first base and left field because with Branyan at first, left field would be all Matt LaPorta.  Now Branyan is set to start the season on the DL and LaPorta will start out as the everyday first baseman for the Erie Warriors.  This leaves the Tribe with two options in left; neither that I’m too crazy about (yet).  Michael Brantley stands to gain the most from Branyan’s injury.  He will likely be the everyday left fielder to start the season and depending on how the rest of the offense shapes up (i.e. Travis Hafner) may find himself there all season.  Brantley has speed.  He’s probably what baseball purists would call a prototypical leadoff hitter.  He’s fast and steals bases.  What else do you want?  But before we brand him the next Kenny Lofton, we should note that he’s not proven.  Brantley only has one year of AAA under his belt and he didn’t exactly hit the snot out of the ball; .267 average with a mere .711 OPS.  As Lou Brown would say, “you may run like Mayes, but you hit like..” we all know how that one ends.  In fact, most projections that I’ve seen have him OPSing around .700; not exactly what you want out of a corner outfielder.   Listen, I’m not a Brantley hater; in fact, I think he has a lot of potential.  I just don’t like seeing him start the season with the big league club.  Had he not put up such meager numbers last year I would probably say give the dude a chance.  But we don’t want to throw a guy into the fire that isn’t ready and in this man’s opinion, Brantley isn’t ready.  He’s definitely a guy to watch though and I for one would be ecstatic if he proves me wrong (and he could).

The final outfielder breaking camp will be Austin Kearns.  Kearns has had a few decent years in the past, but hasn’t really put up major league numbers since 2006, when he OPS’d .830 and hit 24 HRs in the process.  I’ve read projections from five sources on Kearns and no one has him hitting over 10 HRs, .250 or OPSing over .750; this doesn’t exactly make my mouth water.  But projections have been wrong from time to time.  That being said, I don’t like the fact that Kearns and Brantley are our best options in left field.

Overall, I’m pretty high on this group.  Cleveland has one of the best RF-CF combos in the American League, if not all of baseball.  I look for Sizemore to return to form and put up some solid numbers out of the two slot.  I look for Choo to build upon a solid 2009.  The real question mark is in left field.  I’m going to include LaPorta with the infield for this analysis, but the quicker the Tribe gets him back into a corner outfield spot, the better for the entire offense.

April 5, 2010; Game 1: Cleveland Indians (0-0) at Chicago White Sox (0-0) – White Sox 6, Tribe 0

It didn’t take long for the White Sox to get to Jake Westbrook today. Westbrook retired the first two batters in the first inning before giving up a double and homerun on back to back pitches before getting out of the 1^st inning. Unfortunately, that’s all the Sox needed to get past a lethargic Tribe offense that managed only four hits. The Indians probably asked a little too much out of Jake today, but to be honest; he’s probably also their best option. Today was Westbrook’s first start in almost two years and he looked a little….. rusty. The Indians are going to need Westbrook to do two things this year: eat innings and throw strikes and he did neither of those today. His final line was 4.0+ innings pitched 5 ER, 5 hits and 4 walks with only 1 strike out on 92 pitches; only 47 of which were strikes. Oh, and he only threw 4 wild pitches, which ties an Indian record. Needless to say, this is one that Jake would like to forget about. Aaron Laffey relieved Westbrook with no outs and the bases loaded in the 5^th inning, allowing one inherited runner to score on a timely double play. Laffey pitched two scoreless innings of relief, Jensen Lewis threw one and Tony Sipp pitched the 8^th giving up a solo shot to Alex Rios.

Chuck's Prediction

The Cleveland Indians enter the 2010 season with virtually no expectations on them.  The wounds from 2007 are still somewhat fresh if only for the fact that the core is gone; the run is done.  The heart of the team that nearly made the playoffs in 2005 and was within one game of their first World Series since ’97 are starting the season playing for new teams (two of which are now with the evil empires of Boston and New York).  The end seemed to sneak up on us; but as of last July 31^st, the Indians have officially packed it in on 2010. Financially strapped, the Indians were forced to make moves which, in the case of Victor Martinez, broke the heart of many fans (me included).  But, fortunately for us, they still have to play the games.  The Indians are young, but not that young.  They’re bad, but maybe not that bad.  They are a team full of question marks.  Is Hafner healthy enough for a full season?  Can Westbrook and Sizemore rebound from injuries?  Are Choo and Cabrera for real?  Is Jhonny Peralta still a resident of this planet?  Can we FINALLY have a decent bullpen in an even year?  I can’t answer all of these questions; quite frankly, I don’t even know if Jhonny knows where he is sometimes, or if he even cares.  But I think that some of these questions will be answered pretty early on in the season. 

On paper, the 2010 Cleveland Indians do not look like a team built to compete for a pennant and frankly they are not.  Three of the five members of their starting rotation break camp on a major league rotation for the first time in their career.  The combined innings pitched from these three (346) are only approximately 1 ½ years worth from an average starting pitcher.  They start the season with a 22 year old left fielder that has only played one season at AAA or above.  Due to the injury to Kerry Wood, Chris Perez will open as their closer; something he has never done before.  Lou Marson is not only asked to be an everyday MLB catcher for the first time, but also to manage an inexperienced pitching staff.  Finally, four of the nine members of their starting lineup have never opened a major league season on a major league roster.

But maybe they aren’t that bad.  They have one of the best players (and possibly the best centerfielder) in all of baseball in Grady Sizemore.  They have a right fielder that seems to be the real deal in Shin-Soo Choo.  They have two starting pitchers and four relief pitchers that have experienced success (and not that long ago: Carmona, Westbrook, Smith, Wood, Lewis and Rafael Perez).  They also are playing with no pressure and for a manager who seems to exude both confidence and excitement.  So here are my top five reasons why I think this year’s Cleveland Indians team gives their fans reason to believe.

PLAY BALL!

The Cleveland Indians opened their 2010 Cactus League season Friday against the interstate rival Cincinnati Reds; beating the Red’s 9-2 behind 15 hits and solid pitching. Indians pitchers held Cincinnati to just five hits while striking out nine and walking just one.

It’s very early; but there are some potentially valuable nuggets to take from this game.First, Cleveland’s pitchers are going to have to throw strikes this season. 2009 was brutal for Cleveland pitching.The Indians finished the season 2nd worst in ERA (5.07), 5th in BB/9 (3.75), 28th in K/BB (1.65) and 6th in HR/9 (1.15). By the numbers, Cleveland’s staff was the 2nd to Baltimore as the worst staff in baseball. If they are going to be competitive, they are going to have to rely on an average or above-average pitching staff. In order for this staff to do that, they cannot afford to give too much away. Suffice it to say, the Indians are going to need to control the ball a little more and hit the zone, especially to stay ahead in the count and keep opposing runners off base. In Friday’s game, three pitchers critical to Cleveland’s success this season retired every batter faced. Those pitchers are Aaron Laffey, Rafael Perez and Chris Perez, who combined for 4 IP, 3 K’s, and 0 BB. Another player who will be relied on heavily is starter Justin Masterson who faced seven batters in 2 IP with 3 K’s and 0 BB’s while throwing only 13 pitches, all strikes. I for one am extremely high on Masterson who looked stellar in his final outing of last season 9 IP, 12 K’s and 2 BB’s while giving up only one earned run; Friday’s performance was in a similar vein.

On the offensive side, the Tribe just plain hit the ball, with 11 of their 20 batters collecting hits including three doubles, a triple, and three homers while going 5 for 14 with runners in scoring position. Also, 4 of the 11 players had multiple hits. Cleveland also showed some patience accumulating five walks while striking out six times. Newly appointed leadoff man Asdrubal Cabrera lead the game off with a homer, going 2 for 3 and up and coming left fielder Nick Weglarz hit a mammoth opposite field home run and walked in his only other plate appearance.

There’s not a lot to analyze from this as it is only one game, but I liked what I saw on both sides of the ball. I think that Cleveland will put up runs. If we get some pitching support, things could get interesting, especially playing in the AL Central. It’s truly hard to project what will happen this season, but it’s good to come out of the gate with such a strong, encouraging performance.I really hope that Indians’ pitchers throw strikes this season, if for no other reason than for me to keep my sanity. Today was definitely a step in the right direction.