With the NBA playoffs set to begin tomorrow afternoon, here is this writer's opinion of how things will shake out in the upcoming two months.

First Round

(1) Cavaliers over (8) Bulls in five
(2) Magic over (7) Bobcats in six 
(3) Hawks over (6) Bucks in five
(5) Heat over (4) Celtics in seven

(1) Lakers over (8) Thunder in six
(2) Mavericks over (7) Spurs in six
(3) Suns over (6) Blazers in four
(4) Nuggets over (5) Jazz in six

Second Round

(1) Cavaliers over (5) Heat in six
(2) Magic over (3) Hawks in six

(1) Lakers over (4) Nuggets in six
(2) Mavericks over (3) Suns in six

Conference Finals

(1) Cavaliers over (2) Magic in seven
(1) Lakers over (2) Mavericks in seven

NBA Finals
(1) Cavaliers over (1) Lakers in six

Photo: Gregory Smith/AP

In the final chapter of the 2009-2010 regular season, the Cleveland Cavaliers were about as timid and punchless as they've been in the last several years. It was mostly by design though, as Coach Mike Brown sat LeBron for the fourth straight game to close out the regular season and added Mo Williams for the second time this week. Shaquille O'Neal's return was postponed for game one of the playoffs, and both Antawn Jamison and Anderson Varejao played exclusively in the first half. The Hawks, who played only Marvin Williams out of their top six players, had the home energy and role players that responded to it. Seven Hawks were in double digits, and they set out to make a bench highlight film with their third seed in the East already clinched.

Jawad Williams and Delonte West filled the starting spots that they have manned for a decent part of the past week. The wine and gold had just two players reach double figures, led by Jamario Moon's 15 points on 7-of-13 shooting and 7 rebounds. Hanging tough early, the Cavs trailed by just two at halftime. However, several things compounded on the Cavaliers offensively. First, they were nearly shutout from behind the arc for the first time all season. Moon saved them with a fourth quarter three with the Cavaliers hitting just 1 of their 14 attempts. Coupled with their horrific 20-of-36 from the foul line (56%, wrapping up the worst percentage in the league at 72%), the team was wildly inefficient offensively and shot 43% overall. Taking a team's top four offensive options out of play is the prime cause for this, but there are capable guys on this team who can create, but some of them struggled tonight. Delonte West, usually a top performer in these situations, was held to 6 points on 2-of-7 shooting in 25 minutes. Jawad Williams shot just 1-of-6 for 4 points, and 'Tawn and Andy each had 7 points in their limited first half action. Really, the only two guys doing much of anything offensively were Jamario and J.J. Hickson, who had 14 points and 6 boards. These two were active with highlight dunks and solid cuts to the basket. Other than that, it was pretty vanilla for the Cavalier offense.

Photo: Joshua Gunter/Cleveland.com

Getting rest for a team that’s wrapped everything up regular season wise is a good thing. But, Mike Brown according to many people is pushing those limits. Brown sat LeBron James for the third straight game, and Anthony Parker joined him as the Cavaliers withheld from using their full arsenal against a team in the Orlando Magic that they are almost certain to face again. Beyond that, the Cavaliers had perhaps even less concern about actually winning this game than in Chicago or against Indiana. Both Mo Williams and Antawn Jamison sat the entire fourth quarter as the Magic turned it on from three point land and Dwight Howard cleaned up on the inside with no Shaq to defend him. The wine and gold have now lost three games in a row with one more possible tune-up before the real deal begins.

Things started about as well as the Cavs could have hoped. Cleveland, led by Mo and ‘Tawn, made the Magic defense look downright laughable early. Jamario Moon made another start along with Jawad Williams, who filled in for Parker, sitting out his first game all season. Moon did his part to make it business as usual. First, he carried out LeBron’s chalk ceremony, then he mimicked a LeBron steal and breakaway dunk early in the first quarter. Dwight Howard had three early and easy dunks, but he picked up two early fouls and went to the bench prematurely along with his fellow frontcourt mate Rashard Lewis. Stan Van Gundy was fuming over on the sidelines with comments such as, “Mo’s going to try and get 40, Jamison’s going to try and get 40…”, and Orlando looked quite steamed that they were having such trouble with Cavalier Lite.

The Cleveland Indians blew an 8-3 lead going into the bottom of the 7th inning in today's game against the Tigers, which completed Detroit's three game sweep of the Tribe; Detroit won the first two games of the series 5-2 and 4-2.  The Indians' offense (which managed only two runs a game for the first two games of the series) spotted today's starter Jake Westbrook a 5-0 lead in the top of the first, capped off by a Luis Valbuena grand slam.  Cleveland held the lead until a ninth capped off by a bases loaded wild pitch by Tribe closer Chris Perez that gave the Tigers the ball game.  Keep in mind that the wild pitch followed a bases loaded walk to Johnny Damon which tied the game (and was Perez's 3rd walk in 1+ innings pitched).  It was a fitting end for a Tribe staff which allowed an average of 7 walks per game for the series and now leads all of the majors with 40 free passes (almost 7 per game) on the season.  To put it into perspective, only two other teams have 30 or more walks allowed and the current MLB team average for walks allowed is 22.  Basically, Indian pitchers have given first base to 18 more players than the average team through six games or three more walks per game.  Not to mention their 0.8 K:BB ratio is dead last (only Cleveland and Washington have a ratio less than 1) and their pitches/IP is second to last at nearly 18.5.

For the second straight night, winning took a back seat to role players finding their rhythm and, above all, keeping the core healthy. Tonight, Mo Williams and Antawn Jamison joined LeBron James in taking a seat for the festivities, giving the wine and gold just ten bodies to play combined with the injuries to Shaquille O'Neal and Daniel Gibson. What we saw, just as last night, was a surprising amount of efficient, attacking offense and an equally startling lack of effort on the defensive end. The fold resulted in an end of the team's 11 game win streak against Indiana in Cleveland and their 11 game winning streak at The Q. Other than that, it was a highly entertaining contest that gave some non-traditional heavy minutes guys time to shine.

With Mo, LBJ, and 'Tawn all sitting, Delonte West returned from back spasms to start along with Jamario Moon and Leon Powe, making their first and second starts of the season respectively. Normally the sixth man, Anderson Varejao was one of the last players into the game along with Danny Green as Sebastian Telfair, Jawad Williams, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas all checked in prior to that. Other than Green with just nine minutes, the other eight guys played at least 18 minutes as many of them are almost interchangeable (Jawad/Moon/Parker, Powe/Hickson, etc.). The result was everyone giving the effort as if they were truly involved in the game, and every played scored a field goal except for Green.

Photo: Nam Y. Huh/AP

Mike Brown was very statesmanlike leading up to this game, saying that he wanted to give the Chicago Bulls the same opportunity for victory (and defeat) as the Toronto Raptors had on Tuesday night. In the end, though, the opportunity to rest LeBron James was just too tempting, and while LeBron sat, the "non-LeBrons" still gave a national television audience quite a game. Mo Williams had his highest scoring game of the year, and the Cavaliers got some solid contributions from a couple of guys who had been buried on the bench recently. Down one with the final possession, both shots came from Anderson Varejao from beyond 15 feet, and that's generally not a recipe for success, as Andy misfired on both and the Bulls pulled to even with the Raptors for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East.

LeBron James sat for the third time this season, but the way the wine and gold played for most of the game, it wasn't as easy to detect. The Cavaliers had no problem scoring, and this was a great opportunity for Mo and Antawn Jamison to get a bunch of solid, primary-option offensive looks. Mo wasted no time in the first quarter, scoring 9 points and handing out 4 assists. But, the Bulls packed quite a punch at the point guard spot last night with Derrick Rose and Kirk Hinrich. Sure, Hinrich plays primarily shooting guard as a starter, but he does back up Rose at times, and with the way the offense ran through him at times, I think he could be considered a point. The defending rookie of the year is always big trouble for Mo Williams to cover, so the real problem was that Hinrich had such a fantastic game after having a few lackluster performances against the Cavs this season. Rose had a double-double with 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting and 10 assists, and Kirk had 23 points on 8-of-12 shooting with 9 of those coming in the second quarter surge that gave the Bulls a lead midway through the quarter.

By far the Indian’s biggest question mark entering the 2010 season is with their starting rotation.  Jake Westbrook anchors a rotation which has minimal experience and Westbrook himself hasn’t pitched since 2008.  The second man in the rotation, Fausto Carmona, wound up in rookie league for part of last season because he couldn’t stop psyching himself out.  The other three members have a combined 346 innings pitched at the major league level.  To put that into perspective, CC Sabathia threw 230 innings in 2009 and 253 innings in 2008; needless to say, these guys are lacking in experience.  So basically, the Indians, who started the past two seasons with a Cy Young winner anchoring their staff, will now rely on the reemergence of both Jake Westbrook and Fausto Carmona to lead their rotation.

Had you told me in October of 2007 that Fausto Carmona would go on to win only 15 games over the ’08 and ’09 seasons, I would have probably thought you were nuts.  Carmona was getting a lot of attention (and Cy Young votes) after an outstanding ’07 season where he won 19 games with a 3.06 earned run average.  What Carmona had in ’07 that he was lacking the past two seasons is control.  In 2007 Carmona only allowed 2.55 walks per 9 innings while striking out 5.73/9.  Over the past two seasons, Carmona has more than doubled his BB/9 posting 5.22 in ’08 and 5.08 in ’09.  There are a few theories as to why this is so, but I won’t elaborate on those now (though I have my ideas).  Suffice it to say that in order for the Indians to be competitive, Carmona had better keep the ball in the strike zone.  It would be a luxury (and to me a complete surprise) if Carmona reverts back to his ’07 numbers; possible, but extremely unlikely.  However, if he can keep from giving free passes and keep the ball on the ground, he could be a pretty good pitcher.  He’s not a staff ace and really isn’t designed to be a prototypical #1, but he’s got #2 or #3 stuff and this spring, Carmona put up some good numbers; 26 innings pitched, K:BB of 6 and a 1.38 ERA.  It’s sometimes easy to get down on Carmona, but keep in mind; he is only 26 and is just now entering his prime.  I think that a lot of people have been a little tough on him.  We have to remember that in ’07 his stuff was new to the AL hitters and pitching coaches.  By the end of ’07, some of his tricks were revealed (the fact that his pitches have so much movement, that being patient almost assures a hitter that Carmona won’t hit the zone) and coaches were exploiting this weakness.  For Carmona to resume his dominance he must develop a pitch that he can throw for strikes; his 2 seamer is just too erratic.  I look for him to rebound in 2010 to a #2 starter level.

It took the Indians 12 1/3 innings for their first run of the 2010 season to cross the plate, but I guess it was worth the wait.  Starting pitcher Fausto Carmona struggled through the first three innings of tonight's game walking four White Sox batters, including the first two of the game.  It appeared that tonight was going to be a long one after the first inning when Sox leadoff man Juan Pierre walked, stole second and third, and then scored on a Paul Konerko sacrifice fly for a 1-0 lead with no hits.  Carmona started the third inning retiring the first two, walking left fielder Carlos Quentin and promptly giving up a two-run homer to, guess who, Paul Konerko.  Sometimes it feels like the Indians have single handedly prolonged the career of Konerko, who seems to rough up Tribe pitching every chance he gets.  Carmona settled in after the 3rd inning with a final line of 6 innings pitched, 3 earned runs and only 2 hits; but had 6 walks and only 1 strike out.  Carmona through a lot of first pitch balls and early in the game worked out of too many 3 - 1 counts for my liking.

Photo: Joshua Gunter/The Plain Dealer

Someone must have forgotten to inform the Cavalier players and coaching staff that their playoff positioning was completely decided. It was business as usual for the wine and gold, who set a season-high for assists and played just eight guys for nearly the entire game with seven reaching double digit scoring. The Raptors lost Chris Bosh in the game's first two minutes, and consequently they were dominated in the paint by the Cavaliers, who welcomed back Anderson Varejao from a hamstring injury that cost him the last four games. Toronto and Cleveland may meet in two weeks when the playoffs begin, but both Charlotte and Chicago remain possibilities sitting in the seventh and ninth spots respectively.

Other than Delonte West sitting for precautionary reasons with back spasms, Mike Brown played this one as if he did not want to give the Raps anything to build on confidence-wise. The starters all got around their regular number of minutes, and Brown did not extend the rotation to nine or ten players as I thought he might. Jamario Moon, Leon Powe, and Danny Green all got brief playing time at the end, while Daniel Gibson did not play due to an apparent mid-foot sprain that was not reported pre-game. At least the wine and gold made the most of it, notching the win and helping to extend Charlotte's lead on Toronto in the seventh spot to three games. I don't know about you guys, but I don't want any part of the Bobcats. Thankfully, barring a downright collapse from Charlotte, it is looking less likely.

2010 Cleveland Indians – The Outfield

By: Chuck

The Indians roster has been fairly turbulent the last few years.  But even with all of the changes, they still have one of the best players in all of baseball; Grady Sizemore.  Sizemore was plagued by injuries last season and posted his worst numbers since his major league debut in 2004.  In 2009, Sizemore only played in 106 games.  If the Indians are going to do anything this season, they are going to need Sizemore to rebound.  2010 projections are pretty consistent on Sizemore; .270, 25HR and .850 OPS.  I would take this from Sizemore and it would be a step in the right direction.  I like the fact that he has been moved down in the lineup this year.  He should benefit significantly batting between Cabrera and Choo; especially if they both put up numbers like they did last year.  Sizemore is going to have to be the driving force for this team on the offensive side, so 2010 is going to be a test for him.  There is no Victor Martinez; Travis Hafner is not the same guy as he was in 2006; Jhonny Peralta is, well, Jhonny Peralta.  Sizemore has to be the man this year and I believe he will. 

Another Indians outfielder who has gained notoriety with baseball analysts everywhere is Shin-Soo Choo.  Choo burst onto the Cleveland scene in 2008, posting a .946 OPS with 14 HRs in 94 games.  Choo did not give Indian’s fans a letdown in 2009, batting an even .300 with 20 HRs and an above average .883 OPS while playing in 156 games.  Choo provides Cleveland with consistent production in right field that has been lacking since the beginning of the ‘00’s when Manny Ramirez and Juan Gonzalez manned the position.  SSC is only 27 years old and is just entering his prime, so I look for him to keep the productivity at an above average level for years to come (barring a call from his native South Korea to serve a “mandatory” two year military stint).

Left field is the real question mark in this outfield.  The Indians brought in Russell Branyan to solidify both first base and left field because with Branyan at first, left field would be all Matt LaPorta.  Now Branyan is set to start the season on the DL and LaPorta will start out as the everyday first baseman for the Erie Warriors.  This leaves the Tribe with two options in left; neither that I’m too crazy about (yet).  Michael Brantley stands to gain the most from Branyan’s injury.  He will likely be the everyday left fielder to start the season and depending on how the rest of the offense shapes up (i.e. Travis Hafner) may find himself there all season.  Brantley has speed.  He’s probably what baseball purists would call a prototypical leadoff hitter.  He’s fast and steals bases.  What else do you want?  But before we brand him the next Kenny Lofton, we should note that he’s not proven.  Brantley only has one year of AAA under his belt and he didn’t exactly hit the snot out of the ball; .267 average with a mere .711 OPS.  As Lou Brown would say, “you may run like Mayes, but you hit like..” we all know how that one ends.  In fact, most projections that I’ve seen have him OPSing around .700; not exactly what you want out of a corner outfielder.   Listen, I’m not a Brantley hater; in fact, I think he has a lot of potential.  I just don’t like seeing him start the season with the big league club.  Had he not put up such meager numbers last year I would probably say give the dude a chance.  But we don’t want to throw a guy into the fire that isn’t ready and in this man’s opinion, Brantley isn’t ready.  He’s definitely a guy to watch though and I for one would be ecstatic if he proves me wrong (and he could).

The final outfielder breaking camp will be Austin Kearns.  Kearns has had a few decent years in the past, but hasn’t really put up major league numbers since 2006, when he OPS’d .830 and hit 24 HRs in the process.  I’ve read projections from five sources on Kearns and no one has him hitting over 10 HRs, .250 or OPSing over .750; this doesn’t exactly make my mouth water.  But projections have been wrong from time to time.  That being said, I don’t like the fact that Kearns and Brantley are our best options in left field.

Overall, I’m pretty high on this group.  Cleveland has one of the best RF-CF combos in the American League, if not all of baseball.  I look for Sizemore to return to form and put up some solid numbers out of the two slot.  I look for Choo to build upon a solid 2009.  The real question mark is in left field.  I’m going to include LaPorta with the infield for this analysis, but the quicker the Tribe gets him back into a corner outfield spot, the better for the entire offense.